Speaking on a webinar last month, FAAA’s Sarah Abood said the organisation expects a high exit rate.

“At the moment, the number that don’t qualify for either pathway look unreasonably high – over 4,000 – and we don’t think that’s the reality,” Abood said.

“Our estimates are that around 1,000 advisers might be leaving at the end of this year. That’s based partly on data and partly on intention surveys that various providers have done. It’s a guess but it will be a decent dip at the end of this year.”

As at 8 August, ASIC data showed that just 4,493 of the 9,027 advisers eligible for the experience pathway had notified the regulator they intend to utilise the option.

Of those remaining, some 1,944 indicated they wouldn’t be using the pathway, and the remaining 2,590 have yet to respond to ASIC.

“We’re aware there are a number of advisers who are using this as their time to leave the profession, and perhaps they were thinking of retiring anyway, and this has set the deadline,” Abood said.

Speaking to ifa’s sister brand Money Management, Colin Williams, founder of Padua Solutions, said it is difficult to know at this time what the total losses will be at the end of the year, but that “it will be high”.

With a considerable portion of existing advisers expected to be approaching retirement, Williams suggested this will also mean a “great loss of experience”, which is hard to replace.

“It’s hard to say just how many who have said no or not responded will actually drop out. Many in these groups appear well-qualified, but it’s not possible to say how many have the right qualifications,” he said.

Williams predicted widespread losses across the sector, but said the limited-advice segment, including mostly firms offering restricted SMSF advice, will be hit hardest.

“There is a segment of 'advisers' who only provide restricted 'SMSF' advice. This segment has been in steep decline for a while and currently only about 338 are still practising - I expect this segment will all but disappear.”

On the upside, he said, more ‘new entrants’ are joining the profession, and there’s been a steady stream of advisers who exited finding their way back into the profession.

“We may see a surge of these advisers recommence their careers in 2026.”