“We will need to wait for the composition of the Senate to be finalised, but it is possible the government will only need the support of the Greens in the Senate to pass legislation, including the Division 296 legislation. In the previous Parliament, without opposition support, the government needed the support of the Greens as well as three independents to pass legislation,” he said.

“We will continue to alert the government and the Greens to the consequences of taxing unrealised capital gains and will continue to encourage the government to consult with industry on alternatives.”

Aaron Dunn, chief executive of Smarter SMSF, said the passing of the Div 296 tax now seemed a matter of when, not if.

“The question now is to what extent the Greens want to get anything else. They were pushing for a lower threshold to $2 million, however, it is hard to see how the government would agree to that,” Dunn said.

“But will the government have to give up something else for the passage [of the bill] through the Senate? Ultimately it will be down to negotiation, then it becomes a matter of timing. Previously the legislation was meant to start on 1 July 2025, but now it will be a matter of how much time they are going to give people before its implementation.”

He continued that the government will first have to reintroduce the bill and its passage through the Senate would then be subject to the parliamentary calendar.

“If they wanted to push it through in a matter of weeks, they could because there is no backlog in the Senate. It will depend on what the government now wants to prioritise, based on the promises it made in its campaign,” Dunn said.

He added that the fact that the government had already used the revenue generated from the proposed tax in its budget forecasts could be an indication that it would want it passed into legislation sooner rather than later.

“The government wasn’t interested in talking about the concerns [raised about the tax historically], and even off the back of its campaign it still says it will only affect 0.5 per cent of the Australian population, rather than looking at all the other aspects of the bill,” he said.

“The question really is now that based on all the concerns that have been raised whether they will come to fruition. Will there be a redistribution of money? Will money be taken out (of super) and redeployed? And if it does, will the government now have the mandate to look into how trusts operate as well?”

Meg Heffron, director of Heffron, said, given the results and the fact that the government might only need the support of the Greens in the Senate, it can be assumed the Div 296 tax will become a reality.

“It will be interesting to see what changes or compromises happen from here,” she said.

“There have been many voices calling for a change in method such as one that doesn’t tax unrealised gains. In the last Parliament, concern over that specific design feature on the crossbench was enough to discourage the government from actually putting it to a vote, but I expect that resistance will also be quieter, or at least less of a barrier to the government, in the next Parliament.

“Surely, we will at least see the start date deferred. I can’t imagine a single super fund (small or large), software provider or regulator will be ready to deal with a new method for calculating total super balance by 1 July 2025.”