RBA makes last cash rate call for the year
The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced the outcome of its December board meeting as experts speculate the next rate raise following a rise in inflation.
This month, the RBA has decided to maintain the official cash rate at the record-low 0.1 per cent.
All of the 37 economists and commentators on comparison site Finder correctly predicted that rates would remain on hold.
Wealth Within chief analyst Dale Gillham said that while inflation is up at the moment, the RBA believes this is only temporary.
“The current shortages and supply chain issues are putting pressure on inflation not strong economic growth, and so I would think raising interest rates would not on the agenda for a while,” explained Mr Gillham.
Bendigo head of economic and markets research David Robertson said with economic recovery underway together with rising inflation, this will see pressure on the RBA to increase official interest rates by next December. He noted there is still uncertainty around the new Omicron variant of COVID, however.
“Assuming vaccines and boosters are effective for Omicron, the recovery should continue and higher rates should be expected through financial year 22-23,” said Mr Robertson.
The RBA may start raising interest rates in November next year, according to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, with the RBA expecting slighter higher inflation than anticipated, a decline in unemployment to around 4 per cent over the next 12 months and a faster than expected pick up in wages growth taking it to near 3 per cent.
Economist Saul Eslake has similar predictions for when the RBA will raise rates.
“I think the RBA's right that the data and forecasts don't 'warrant' an increase in the cash rate in 2022 - but I think one will be 'warranted' by Q2 2023,” said Mr Eslake.
“The RBA won't be influenced by other central banks including the Fed moving sooner: indeed, they'd likely welcome the further fall in the A$ which would result from that.”
Miranda Brownlee
Miranda Brownlee is the deputy editor of SMSF Adviser, which is the leading source of news, strategy and educational content for professionals working in the SMSF sector.
Since joining the team in 2014, Miranda has been responsible for breaking some of the biggest superannuation stories in Australia, and has reported extensively on technical strategy and legislative updates.
Miranda also has broad business and financial services reporting experience, having written for titles including Investor Daily, ifa and Accountants Daily.
