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Coronavirus only a ‘speed hump’, notes analyst

By Aidan Curtis
14 February 2020 — 1 minute read

The coronavirus, now named COVID-19, will not be a catalyst for the market to turn bearish or crash despite it having some economic impact on the Australian economy, according to a market analyst.

In his weekly market report, Wealth Within chief analyst David Gillham said while COVID-19 will continue to have some economic impact on Australia, it is only a speed hump for the markets.

“[COVID-19] may slow down some areas of the market, but it won’t stop the bull run,” Mr Gillham said.

“Given this, investors would be wise to ride the waves rather than jump ship.”

This is similar to the views expressed by BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese, who said investors should be able to “look through” dips in the market as a result of COVID-19.

Mr Gillham noted that Austrade lists Australia as the 14th largest economy in the world at 1.4 per cent of global GDP, and has had 28 years of uninterrupted annual economic growth.

“Austrade [is] also forecasting annual real GDP growth in Australia of 2.7 per cent over the next five years,” he said.

“If we achieve this, Australia will be growing faster than the USA, UK and Europe, although we will still lag behind China, India and other Asian countries which are expected to grow between 5 and 7 per cent.”

According to Mr Gillham’s report, the market has risen strongly in the past week, with financials leading the way up over 2 per cent, though it is still down from its high in March 2015 by 11 per cent.

The report also noted the consumer discretionary market as up over 2 per cent and healthcare up over 60 per cent since 1 January 2019.

Energy was listed as the worst performer, followed by materials and consumer staples.

When talking about what’s next for the Australian sharemarket, Mr Gillham said the ASX has shown how resilient it is by once again rising this past week.

“I need to revisit my original thinking as it now looks like it will remain bullish and move up over the next three to four weeks,” he said.

“Right now, it is sitting at the lower end of my original target of 7,200 points, and I believe it will trade up to my top end target of 7,600 points to make a new all-time high that I have been expecting.”


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