Aaron Dunn, Smarter SMSF CEO, told SMSF Adviser that the lobbying work done by the SMSF Association and other industry associations with the Senate crossbench over the past months will now be of most importance.
“The question remains whether the government will have the numbers they need to now get the bill through the Senate,” Dunn said.
“Do they have the support of at least three independents or minor parties, as well as the Greens without any further requests?”
Dunn said it was not a surprise that the lower house passed the bill, as the government controls the House of Representatives, but whether the bill remains in its current form in the Senate is not certain.
“I didn’t feel like the government would give any concessions in the lower house because they had the numbers to get passage through to the Senate,” he said.
“But whether the bill in its current form will be approved in the Senate is another matter. Things change significantly in the Senate as Labor only has 25 seats, and they need 39 to pass the bill. They would need the Greens’ support, which would give them 11 seats taking it to 36, and three of the six independents, which include Jacqui Lambie, One Nation and the United Australia Party.”
He said it was these crossbenchers whom the SMSFA and other industry bodies had been lobbying.
“Most in the minor parties would side with the opposition and it then becomes a discussion and debate with the independent senators on whether they agree with the bill in its current form,” he said.
The challenge would now centre on when the Senate may debate the bill with limited weeks of Parliament sitting left this year.
“There is only a finite number of sitting days left and then we move into next year. It’s already been stated that the latest possible federal election date will be 17 May 2025, which means there will be a dissolution of Parliament in March and this year Parliament did not resume sitting until March,” Dunn said.
He said there was now a sense of urgency for the bill if the government wanted to get it into legislation before the federal election, and despite the opposition stating it would repeal the bill if it won government, it could still be difficult.
“It would be a bit like the stage three tax cuts. Yes, it can become law if you control both houses of Parliament, but it would be difficult to get through any changes if you don’t,” he said.
“And you can argue that with the way things are going, there will be more independents and minor parties so any potential change will be harder to make.”
