AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says over the long term, shares are predicted to perform well, but there could be some corrections in the short-term.
“September and October are often rough months seasonally and various event risks loom in the months ahead including ongoing debate around the Fed, the Austrian presidential election, Italian banks, the Italian Senate referendum, the US election with support for [Donald] Trump edging up and global growth generally,” Mr Oliver said.
Mr Oliver said if Mr Trump is elected, his policies could result in higher inflation, higher interest rates and a higher US dollar. Growth could take a hit, and a Trump presidency could also result in negative geopolitical and social consequences.
“Clinton’s policies would likely also provide a short-term stimulus but higher marginal tax rates and more regulation may offset the short-term boost,” he said.
“However, after any short-term weakness, we anticipate shares to trend higher over the next 12 months helped by OK valuations, continuing easy global monetary conditions and continuing moderate global economic growth.”
Mr Oliver said there is also a higher risk the Australian dollar which “will re-test its April high of $US0.78 as the Fed continues to delay, presenting challenges for the RBA”.
“Beyond the short term though, we see the longer term downtrend in the Australian dollar ultimately resuming as the interest rate differential in favour of Australia narrows as the RBA continues cutting and the Fed eventually resumes hiking, commodity prices remain low and the Australian dollar sees its usual undershoot of fair value.”
