Mr Oliver said that while the current situation is in some ways “reminiscent of 2008 with tightening credit markets, bank shares under pressure”, another GFC-style credit and banking crisis is unlikely.
“Banks in the US, Europe and Australia are better capitalised now,” said Mr Oliver.
“US and European bank exposure to energy loans at around 2-4 per cent of total assets is a fraction of their exposure to housing loans, which were at the centre of the GFC.”
New restrictions on proprietary trading have limited banks’ exposure to riskier corporate debt, Mr Oliver explained.
“The issues of low transparency and complexity that plagued the subprime mortgage market are not really an issue in corporate debt markets now,” he said.
“So far we are not seeing any blowout in inter-bank lending rates relative to official interest rates in contrast to what we saw in 2007-2008 as bank funding costs soared.”
AMP Capital also continues to have the view, he said, that a “US-driven global recession is unlikely, albeit with a 25 per cent probability”.
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