Global equity bull market tipped to last till 2020
While trade wars and Brexit may be causing some fear among investors at the moment, global equities are still expected to rally into next year, according to an investment manager.
Instreet managing director George Lucas said despite some of the economic headwinds facing the US economy, including the US-China trade war and monetary conditions tightening, it continues to power along.
“In the first quarter of 2019, and to the surprise of many analysts predicting a slowdown, it grew an annualised 3.2 per cent, comfortably above market expectations of 2 per cent,” said Mr Lucas.
There has been positive news from personal consumption and private investment to state and local government spending and the latest employment numbers.
“Even exports were in the black, with goods and services both in positive territory. Like when Trump was first elected, financial stocks were the biggest beneficiaries of investors’ appetite for equities.”
Mr Lucas while said there is a valid argument that there are signs that this economic cycle is well advanced corporate earnings, employment numbers and consumer confidence, there are other economic indicators suggesting it still has some life such as benign corporate investment and struggling wages growth.
“Investors are taking their cue from the latter. It’s as if issues such as trade wars and Brexit, to name but a couple, have lost their fear factor and have just become part of the investor landscape,” he said.
“That, of course, could all change with one Donald Trump tweet. But I suspect it won’t happen in 2019, and that this bull market has the legs to get us into 2020.”